Monday 8/25/08 - At A Glance

By: Matthew Graham •
  • MBS opens slightly better trading in a 100-12 to 100-13 range
  • Treasuries out to early lead 5 year up 8 ticks, 10 year up 12.  (provides some support for MBS)
  • Tech Perspective: entire week last week over 21 day moving average, week before that saw MA at annual lows, moved above 40 day MA for first time since 7/9.  40 day MA held firm Thursday and Friday.  Week over week MACD (another tech tool) continues positive trend.  The key level that coincided with various techs was around 100-10.  We've held this over the weekend and yet again this AM, seems to be providing support.
  • Fundamental Perspective: Analysts point to several supportive factors for MBS this week: supply=low, potential GSE news, spreads wide.  Coming off the lowest point of the year, and have not moved decidedly back in that direction since 7/22.  Medium amount of data to digest this week with a wide variety.  Overall generally supportive.  Existing home sales kicks things off at 10AM eastern. 
  • LOCK/FLOAT:
    • FLOATING until price action indicates otherwise.  So far, so good.