Thursday 8/21 ... Uh Oh, Here Come Those Old Time Analogies!

Once more into the breach!

Onward Ye MBS Soldiers!

<additional generic allusion to emphatic battle cry here>

Long story short, my brothers and sisters in arms, the bulls are consistently pushing into the bears territory following our little skirmish this morning.

We just pushed up to 100-23, a scant 3 ticks down on the day.  If this were a level and non-volatile price for the day, we would not see any lenders releasing rates lower this morning.

Because of the earlier weakness and volitility, lenders may have either priced at the lower points of the morning or will just be pricing now with these nicer levels, but still "hedging" due to this morning's weakness.

Moral of the story, locking now feels like a really BAD idea unless you like losing money.  If you have a lender that has NOT priced yet for the day, however, and you have 24 hour rate sheets, there could be an exception to the above assertion, but even if we just hold at 3 ticks down on the day, we should be at the same or better price levels on today's sheets.

It would be VERY odd for a lender that priced early this morning to reprice for the worse at this point.  Much more likely is that we'll have to endure a few hours of "not-so-friendly" rate sheets, but rest assured it will all come back if we can hold 100-23.  As I said earlier this morning, most lenders, even after reprices yesterday, priced according to a 6.0 FNMA of about 100-20, so 100-23, though probably not enough for an improvement, would at least not leave us any worse off.

Whatever the case, the environment favors floating in general.  Stay tuned!