8/13 ... Charts

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 On this first graph, you can see a trend channel constructed with today's price curve.  This channel uses the current low as one of the two points for the lower channel line.  This is the more aggressive way to look at today's numbers and still leaves the possibility for the curve to stay in the channel and keep improving.

On this next graph, the channel is constructed with the first 3 lows of the day acting as the points for the bottom channel line.  This is the more appropriate method for drawing a trend line since it has more support (3 lows vs. 2).  As you can see, in this construction, we've already broken out of the channel suggesting sideways movement for the rest of the day.  

the nice thing is that we float either way.  Since rates will make it out to most of us before the curve would have a chance to tank (probably), whether rates improve later in the day or whether they rise, we should be able to see a potential reprice for the worse coming with enough advanced notice to lock if you need to lock before CPI tomorrow (again, an analysis on CPI gameplan will follow).