Thursday 7/17/08 .... Kicking MBS While its Down

With the economic data this morning, what has happened is precisely what we didn't want to happen.  Additionally, stocks are faring decently and within the scope of recent weeks are in a downright boom (dow at 11,294).

Here's a two day chart for you.  (it's not a happy chart)

The 6.0 is nearing a key level at 100-05.  

Based on technical analysis last night, this morning's weakness can be taken as a sign of some further short term weakness.  It also pushes out the window of certainty as to when rates will retrace.  However long it takes rates to rebound, we'll probably see the beginning of the rebound next week or the week after.

Despite the current negativity, many analysts, both technical and fundamental, agree that the things should be improving through the end of the year starting some time within the next month to month and a half.  Don't stake your fortune on this unless you think inflation can stay subdued.

Intraday lock/float recommendations would be all over the board today as lenders will be priced all over the board.  If you are floating right now and you want to get off the ride, no sense in waiting.  If, on the other hand, you can wait a bit, it will probably make more sense to keep floating.  If your lender released rates near the 10AM hour (EST), there is a potential reprice for the worse by .125, but hardly any lender will have priced aggressively enough to warrant that.

Otherwise, stay reasonably tuned and we'll let you know if we see the curve tanking.  No scheduled data tomorrow, so be very afraid of momentum if the Dow manages to have another triple digit day.