Stock Lever Leads Rates Through Long Standing Resistance. Reprices Reported

By: Matthew Graham
  • 4.5's up 6 ticks on the day at 101-08
  • Secondary Market Current Coupon: -2.8bps at 4.318
  • CC Yield Spreads Even Wider: +82/UST10YR 
  • 10yr tsy yield just ticked UNDER 3.47
  • Hedging Ahead Of Event Risk:
    • UK elections yet to be decided
    • Tory victory could contribute to tighter EU policy
    • tighter EU policy could affect German vote tomorrow on Greek bailout
    • Big Fat Greek protests in Athens right now
    • bailout gets voted down and FTQ demand remains and/or increases
    • Internals of Jobless claims this AM hint that NFP may not be the "big beat" everyone is planning on.
    • If it's lackluster or poor, it's akin to showering the flames of risk with kerosene, hydrogen gas, gunpowder, and whatever else makes a big boom, all in a 100% oxygen atmosphere
    • Stock lever is a big factor.  S&P has been a psych chart for the recovery sentiment, and it's showing signs of mental instability.
  • Everyone Toga Up!  Emergency Meeting At The Parthenon!

bullet points above combined with captions in charts below really cover this one.  If you have questions as to all this "FTQ nonsense," ASK!

Beyond that, here are the latest snapshots of the glass rally in action.

Reprices for the better either have already hit, or soon will.  Expect gravity around 3.49 in the 10yr, and a trampoline-like sheet of nearly impenetrable resistance for MBS at 101-13 to 101-16.