Friday 6/27/08 .... plateauing but still great

I know this morning was "graph-less" so hopefully this late breakfast will satisfy your hunger:

As you can see, it's been a good day to say the least.  Our Ninja reports MBS have been finding lots of buyers including hedge funds, overseas, servicers, and insurance funds, due to the spreads becoming wide enough, and looking to go wider still this morning combined with falling rates, that it prompted these buyers to opt for MBS in lieu of UST's.  Evidence for this is stark with the difference in price between the 5 year treasury and comparable MBS coupon (6.0's) is almost a quarter of a point wider day over day.

Without a further stock sell off, it's unlikely that MBS can improve much more today, so as soon as you've gotten at least .25 YSP and potentially as high as .375 YSP price improvement, what you see is probably what you get.  If you don't have the .25 yet, which almost no lender I've seen has offered up, you will very likely see that improvement soon,.  If we hang on to this plateau, you may get the other eighth.  Until you have it, float to your lock cut off and then ask yourself the prime directive question: can I afford to lose ground on this? 

Risk V. Reward is a tough call for next week.  Indicators are mixed, but you have to be on the lookout for a rebound day for yields some time soon, likely toward the beginning of the week.