The Day Ahead: Stocks Continue Sliding Ahead of ADP and ISM

US equities look to open lower as bad news from Europe continues to dominate the headlines.

The latest is European Central Bank council member Axel Weber warning that Greek insolvency could have “a Lehman-like effect.” He called the loans mechanism from the European Union “the best way” to prevent the crisis from spreading.

“There is a threat of grave contagion effects for other member states in the monetary union and increasing negative feedback loop effects on capital markets,” Weber said, according to Bloomberg News. “All in all, Germany’s contribution to the aid package for Greece is justifiable.”

Compared to the sell-off in Europe, today’s downward open in US equities looks minor, yet the benchmark S&P 500 already lost 2.4% yesterday, marking the largest one-day fall in two months. 

Ahead of the bell, Dow futures are down 22 points to 10,870 and S&P 500 futures are off 3.75 points to 1,168.75.

The 2 year Treasury note yield is 2bps lower at 0.932% and the 10 year Treasury note is down 1.5bps yielding 3.583%. Also, WTI crude oil is down $1.31 to $81.43 per barrel, while Spot Gold is trading $3.63 lower at $1167.65

Key Events Today:

8:15 ― Two days before the official employment results, the ADP Employment Survey should give some idea of how the private sector shaped during April. The survey showed a decline of 23k jobs in March and 24k jobs in February, but this month should indicate 28k new jobs. 

Economists at BMO Capital Markets expect to see an increase 50,000 jobs in April, which they note would be the first advance since January 2008. They added that ADP has understated private-sector payrolls for the past five months, including a 100k miss in March.

9:00 ― Treasury Refunding Announcement. This will provide more details about the amount of debt and maturity that Treasury will auction next week and the months ahead. This is an  important event for bond market as traders see this as a fundamental shift toward cutting the deficit.

10:00 ― Further improvement is anticipated in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. In March it moved up 2.4 points to 55.4; this month it should move up to 56.4, as new orders in the prior month leapt to 62.3, the highest level in more than five years.

“Activity is expected to remain at good levels, as freight volumes continued to move up in recent weeks,” said economists at IHS Global Insight. “Financial markets also had a buoyant month, despite the periodic market fits over European sovereign risk. The main drag on a stronger gain will be only glacial improvements in the employment gauge, which is expected to land near the 50 mark.”

7:00pm ― Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, speaks to the Money Marketeers of New York University.