Locking is safest, But Floating Beckons

We ended the day 4/32nds ahead of yesterday.  But this was almost 10/32nds off the highs of the days.  Whether you choose to lock now or not will depend on your estimation of tomorrow's data.  NFP is anticipated at 75k negative.  Personally, I think it will be worse.  If you agree, float with me.

If you disagree and think the market pared less jobs than the 75k forecast, you will want to lock now.

The Dow seems overbought at 13,000.  But also, we haven't seen much to gap out the spread between mortgages and 10 years this week.  So there is some inherent resistance to mortgage rates moving lower tomorrow.  Or is the tightening of the spread curve a trend as opposed to a building of resistance?  

Locking is the safest bet, but again, for the market bears, such as myself, floating is more enticing despite the potential losses.  We'll alert you as soon as possible tomorrow morning if we see MBS moving wildly in one direction or the other.  To reiterate, only float if you are convinced that stocks will turn around a bit tomorrow and NFP will be worse than expected.