Bond Markets Continue To Display A Lack Of Conviction

• 4.5's are down 1 tick at 100-06
• 10yr notes are unchanged at 3.801
• Stocks are modestly higher

Total lack of conviction in the market today. 

Both markets are trading at or near recent mid-range pivot points.  For treasuries, it looks like 3.8 was tested and broken on the 16th, but as of today is not confirming that test.  What then?  A holding pattern until we see if something motivates yields lower again?  Pretty much the same story in MBS...  Two decent sessions above 100-06, and now right back on that fence.

The good news is that with the decrease in volatility and the relatively higher prices versus this morning, lenders that priced conservatively may be offering up some improvements, though they'd be small.  But all that does is put us right back in the boat of deciding on overnight locks as the markets go out "on a fence."  So the view is largely the same: more predisposed to locking, but not without opportunities for gains.  And the bolder among you might well say that if the 10yr is closing at 3.8 or better, you'd float indefinitely.  That might pay off or today's dance around 3.8 could simply presage a dance around 3.84 tomorrow.  Bottom line, the short term outlook is pretty neutral and even more than other times, dependent on your own thoughts on risk vs. reward.