Be Alert

Philly Fed survey was released better than expected, but down almost 5% nonethleess.  LEI was released in line with expectations confirming our recessionary trend.  We will have to carefully watch the market's reaction to these numbers.  When releases are weaker than historical numbers but equal to or stronger than anticipations, reaction can be fickle.

MBS is starting to trend downward by just a tick or two, and the Dow has rallied up to around 100 points.  In the absence of MBS specific headlines, keep an eye on that DJIA for indications.  The higher, the worse.  If your lender released rates already this morning and you've seen the gains from yesterday reflected therein, locking would be the safest way to go considering the heavy losses yesterday in the dow, the not-weaker than expected economic data, and the fact that it is quadruple witching (google search it), which have historically been "up" days for the dow.

Locking now cements the gains from this morning if your rates are out already,  In fact, as I watch the live trend line, I'm going to recommend locking as the preffered choice for today.  Floating can still pay off if you have some time to go before closing.  Either way, I will keep you posted with any other big moves.  If your rates have not yet been released today, wait and see where the bond market is before making your lock decisions.