TUESDAY MORNING .............................................. 2/5/08

Today is a good morning for mortgage rates. 

In economic data:

1. Week over week and year over year change of store sales were 1.7% and 1.6% respectively.

2.  The ISM business activity level index came in at 41.9 amazingly lower than the expectation of 53.0.  This is one of the key factors driving interest rates down today.  A week showing in business activity indicates recession is more possible than the bulls have been thinking.  Here's a link to CNBC's coverage of the problem: http://www.cnbc.com/id/23009011

 
In Mortgage Backed Securities, the 5.0 coupon is up 13/42nds and the 5.5 coupon is up 9/32nds.

This should equate to rate improvements today of roughly .25 of a discount point.

Basically, the market is concerned about recession, so there is a "flight to safety" which means traders are buying bonds.  When people are buying bonds, the prices go up.  When prices go up, the rates go down.

Stay tuned...