1/3/2008 - A Half-Step Back

The day is young, but bonds have given back a small portion of their gains yesterday.  Traders interpretation of the employment numbers in addition with some technical rebound forces from yesterdays sell off are the probably cause.  We should know more when the market opens, so stay tunes for updates if there are any significant changes.  Dow Futures are indicating that the Dow should move higher after the opening bell.

Depending on whether or not your lender repriced yesterday, rates my not be worse from yesterday.  In fact, if your lenders didn't reprice, rates may actually be better as bond prices are still slightly above their Wednesday opening numbers.

 Both the 5.5% and the 6.0% FNMA MBS coupons are trading above 100.  That's a great level for more good interest rates.

Expect PAR rates at 5.5% today or slightly higher at some lenders.  There is still the relatively important factory orders data that will be released in 30 minutes.

Lock Comment: Despite the potential for rates to move lower, the markets will be hungry for any excuse to move money back into securities today.  Locking when bond prices are high is always the conservative bet.  The employment data released tomorrow in conjunction with ISM data can have a significant impact on rates if it deviates from expectations.  Keep your eye on stocks today.  A sharp move upward can lead to a price worsening in mortgage bonds.  If you have some time to wait before funding (over 15 days), floating is a risk that could pay off given the market uncertainty.  However, with bond prices historically high, it is important for you to stay tuned to information from Wall Street.  Remember, in general, bad news for the economy is good for rates.  Fears of recession are bad for rates.