12/31/07 - Bond Prices Up Yet Again

Weakness in stocks this morning are helping bond prices move higher again from their gains on Friday afternoon.

Today is a shortened trading day with the markets closing at 2pm EST.

You can expect pricing to be slightly better today than Friday (especially if your lender did not reprice on Friday afternoon).

In news released today, the existing home sales number came in slightly higher than expected, but still at a low level historically.  This has not had a major impact on bond prices.

The markets are closed tomorrow with Wednesday bringing a large amount of moderately important data.

30 Year Fixed PAR NOTE rate : 5.625%

Lock Comment: If the rate looks good to you, lock it.  We have hit the ceiling for the 3rd time in a month and a half which bonds have failed to break through.  Of course we hope prices break through the ceiling on Wednesday due to weak economic data, but the safe bet is to lock later today.  Stocks have been down for several sessions, and with the boatload of information coming out Wednesday, one can see that the bulls are waiting at the gate, ready to charge at the first sign of economic strength.  This recommendation may be overly conservative, so as always, I will leave it to your personal preference.  If you think there is more potential weakness than analysts already predict ahead in the ADP employment report, manufacturing survey, construction spending report, store sales report, and MBA purchase applications, then by all means, float confidently.  In my mind, it is a risk you might regret as bonds have failed several times now to break through this glass ceiling with PAR rates at 5.625.  Nevertheless, it may be a risk worth taking because as soon as we do break through that ceiling, historical trends show that we should stay above it for a while.