30 Year Bond Auction Results and Reactions
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $13 billion 30 year bonds. Four of the last five long bond auctions have been at this size, so the market is accustomed to this much 30 yr bond supply.
The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was 2.73 bids submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. This is well above both the ten auction average of 2.32 and the five auction average of 2.53 and the third highest 30 yr bond auction turnout since 2008. Only last month's issuance and the September auction saw greater demand. (2.89 and 3.92 btc's respectively)
Bidding stopped out at a high yield of 4.770%...which was above the 1pm "when issued" bid.
Primary Dealers, aka the street, took 37.7% of the issue. This is WELL BELOW the ten auction average of 44.5% and the five auction average of 49.0%. This is extremely low but a net positive as we do not want the street taking down too much debt because they will need to distribute unexpected supply to their accounts...and the market may force them to do so at lower prices and higher yields.
Direct bidders, aka domestic fund managers like Vanguard and PIMCO, were once again a HUGE SOURCE OF SUPPORT for the long bond, taking down 25.5% of the issue. This is WAY ABOVE the ten auction average of 9.6% and the five auction average of 15.5% . This is the third consecutive 30 yr auction where direct bidders were aggressive bidders.
Indirect bidders were awarded 36.8% of the auction. This is close to both the five and ten auction averages of 36.9% and 35.5% respectively.
Non-dealer accounts took down 62.3% of the auction. That is much better vs. recent averages and a sign of strong demand.
Plain and Simple: . While the long bond auction didn't go as well as the previous three auctions of the week, but demand was still strong. Direct bidders continue to be a massive source of support (grabbing yield!)
Below is a recap of auction statistics.
$13 BILLION 30-YEAR BOND
| YIELDS | |
|---|---|
| High | 4.770 pct |
| Median | 4.728 pct |
| Low | 4.650 pct |
| PRICE / ACCEPTANCES | |
| Price | 97.692939 |
| Accepted at high | 30.96 |
| Bid-to-cover ratio | 2.73 |
| AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) | |
| Total accepted | 13,951,661,800 |
| Total public bids tendered | 36,424,460,300 |
| Competitive bids accepted | 12,986,601,600 |
| Noncompetitive bids accepted | 13,408,700 |
| Fed add-ons | 951,651,500 |
| Primary Dealer Tendered | 21,535,400,100 |
| Primary Dealer Accepted | 4,893,032,000 |
| Primary Dealer Hit Rate | 22.7% of what they bid on |
| Primary Dealer Total Award | 37.7% of total auction |
| Direct Bidder Tendered | 5,791,000,000 |
| Direct Bidder Accepted | 3,308,597,600 |
| Direct Bidder Hit Rate | 57.1% of what they bid on |
| Direct Bidder Total Award | 25.5% of total auction |
| Indirect Bidder Tendered | 8,133,000,000 |
| Indirect Bidder Accepted | 4,784,972,000 |
| Indirect Bidder Hit Rate | 58.8% of what they bid on |
| Indirect Bidder Total Award | 36.8% of total auction |
The bond market is stuck at pre-auction levels while stocks continue to tick higher....
The 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is -0-06 at 99-27 yielding 3.886%.
The FN 4.5 is -0-04 at 99-30 yielding 4.514%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.513%. The CC yield is +62.7bps/10yr TSY yields and +65.9bps/10yr IRS. MBS yield spreads are slightly tighter vs. TSYs and about unchanged vs. swaps.
REPRICES FOR THE WORSE HAVE BEEN REPORTED...but nothing widespread.
Overnight support is still holding up well in 10s...if that support gives way to selling, you can expect the FN 4.5 to fall to 99-26 and more lenders to reprice for the worse. Holding steady at intraday price lows/yield highs for now though...