12/5/07 COUNTERPOINT

Some analysts say that the important factors of the upcoming employment situation report are Not what the actual numbers are, but how much they differ from "expectations."  Since the ADP report came out so high today, it has some thinking that the consensus on Friday's numbers is currently too low.  This means they anticipate better than expected jobs growth which would be very good for the stock market and likely increase mortgage rates.

The market is anticipating a month over month change of 65,000 payrolls this month.  Last month the 166,000 number beat the estimate by more than 80,000!  That means the two month total would have to be over 220,000, which is actually lower than average.  As a result of the ADP numbers both Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns revised their number up to 120,000, which is more in line with historical consensus.  If the market "prices in" this expectation today and tomorrow and we hit the original expectation of 65,000 or less, rates will go down instead of holding steady.

 If the more optimistic analysts are correct about the employment situation, then you should ignore my float recommendation and lock today.  It all depends on your level optimism about the employment situation.