Significant Losses In MBS and Treasuries, But Does It Mean Anything?

• FN 4.5's down 14 ticks to 99-12
• 10yr Tsy Yield 3.95
• But does it mean anything?
• In a word: no
• Volumes are low and stocks are closed today
• Market reaction to NFP will be Monday, and bonds baking in worst case scenario on low volume

Any time the charts look like that, it's not a great thing for rate sheets.  And indeed rate sheets will be much worse this morning.  They may even be this bad on Monday morning, but the frustrating thing is that today really hasn't given us enough information to be able to know that yet.

Volume has been exceedingly low and the stock futures that have traded today have done so amidst low volume as well.  +162k was a weaker than expected NFP, but with a lower than expected impact from census jobs, the net positive is HIGHER than expected.

That creates some uncertainty as to how the market will ultimately trade this report, but for now, a run to 4.0% in the 10yr looks like it's not in the cards and both treasuries and MBS look to be making a case for bottoming out today.  I guess the point is even if that was NOT the case, it probably wouldn't change the fact that Monday will be the first telling reaction to today's data.

At least I'd say that the epic shift in sentiment is not likely to be created by what we saw this AM.  I'd very likely not be locking right now, and just waiting with crossed fingers for Monday.  If it gets worse, it shouldn't be much worse.  And it's more likely to get better.