Inflation Keeps Rates on The Run

I wish I had better news, but so far, "not so good."

Even though all of the news and data continues to point toward weakening economies, which is normally good for interest rates, inflation looms large as mortgage rate's mortal enemy.  Remember that Mortgage Backed Securities are a fixed income investment, exactly like a treasury bond.  So when a dollar is worth less (inflation), so is the security.  This makes traders shy away from buying Mortgage Bonds and treasuries when inflation is a major concern, as it is right now.

As such, expect slightly worse rates today than yesterday.  We have an action-packed week of economic data left with the extremely important Employment Situation report on Friday.  In general mortgage rates follow a trend.  That trend, after the great day we had on Friday, indicates that this week should be worse, and possibly next week as well.  But if economic data is bad enough, traders could still be convinced to buy mortgage bonds, which would improve interest rates.

The trend and the short term data and inflation and the fact that we are historically low on rates all suggest liking if you like the rate.  Especially lock if you can't afford to lose any money.  If, however, you are as convinced as I am that the economy will continue to surprise the average analyst with it's negativity, floating is a calculated risk.  Be very wary of inflation, but also cognizant of the fact that inflation can be overlooked if the economy is bad enough.