7 Year Treasury Note Auction Results and Reactions
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $32 billion 7 year notes.
"Successfully" means the auction did not fail....demand was poor though.
The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was 2.61 bids submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. This is below both the five and ten auction averages of 2.72 and 2.79 respectively.
Bidding stopped out at a high yield of 3.374%. This was way above the 1pm "when issued" bid. A sign of poor auction demand...regardless of the massive concession that was priced in over the past 24 hours.
Primary Dealers, aka the street, took 50.0% of the issue. This is well above the ten auction average of 39.2% and the five auction average of 38.6%. Just like the 2 year note auction and the 5 year note yesterday, dealers took home too much debt. While dealers don't mind a chunky award, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. We do not want the street taking down higher percentages of the auction because they will need to get rid of excess supply...and they will not do it at cost.
Direct bidders, aka domestic fund managers like Vanguard and PIMCO were awarded 8.1% of the issue. This is above the ten auction average of 6.4% but below the five auction average of 9.8% and well below the direct bidder awards of 17.2% and 11.8% at the previous two 7 year note auctions.
Just like the 2 yr note and 5 yr note, indirect bidders were awarded a paltry percentage of the auction. They took home 41.9% of the issue. This is well below both the five and ten auction averages of 54.4% and 51.6% respectively. This happened at the previous 7 year note auction when indirect bidders took 40.3% of the issue...before that indirects were running in the high 50 to low 60% range. On top of that...indirects submitted way less bid$.
Plain and Simple: Same as yesterday. The bid to cover was light considering how much this issue cheapened prior to the auction. Blame a seller dominated marketplace for that, traders saw an opportunity to push yields higher/prices lower...they clearly took it. The auction high yield confirms this theory. Dealers took down too much debt again, they will be forced to sell this inventory into a buyers market, which means they must adjust their offer price lower to attract demand. That pushes yields higher. Dealers will likely wait to distribute this supply until sellers are washed out of the marketplace. Direct bidders took a big step backward after strong turnouts at the previous two 7 year note auctions. That is a bit concerning. Indirect bidders have been M.I.A all week. That will spark some discussion about foreign demand from China. Perhaps our wishes that China unpegs their currency is forcing them to demand higher real rates of return? Or maybe they are just mad at us.
Here are the results...
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7-YEAR NOTES YIELDS High 3.374 pct Median 3.289 pct Low 3.229 pct PRICE/ACCEPTANCES Price 99.232610 Accepted at high 83.04 pct Bid-to-cover ratio 2.61 NOTE DETAILS Issued date March 31, 2010 Maturity date March 31, 2017 CUSIP number 912828MV9 |
AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars) Total accepted 32,000,004,700 Total public bids tendered 83,368,964,700 Competitive bids accepted 31,954,140,000 Noncompetitive bids accepted 45,864,700 Fed add-ons 1,082,468,000 Primary Dealer Tendered 59,057,000,000 Primary Dealer Accepted 15,982,000,000 Primary Dealer Hit Rate 27.1% of their bid Primary Dealer Award 50.0% of issuance Direct Bidder Tendered 7,968,000,000 Direct Bidder Accepted 2,593,000,000 Direct Bidder Hit Rate 32.5% of their bid Direct Bidder Award 8.1% of issuance Indirect Bidder Tendered 16,298,100,000 Indirect Bidder Accepted 13,379,140,000 Indirect Bidder Hit Rate 82.1% of their bid Indirect Bidder Award 41.9% of issuance |
It is not a huge surprise to see such poor turnout given the events that unfolded yesterday in the rates market. Between then and now, no base has been put in below interest rate prices...this means there is no floor to stop selling yet. I am hopeful the completion of this round of auction supply will help wash out sellers and draw in bargain buying. Whether or not this occurs before or after 10s hit 4.00% is not clear. It is a possibility though.
The 10 year TSY note hit a new intraday yield high of 3.905% before falling back below 3.90%. Currently the 3.625% coupon bearing 10 year note is -0-08 at 97-29 yielding 3.884%.Remember our range outlier target is 4.00%.
The FN 4.5 initially hit an new intraday price low at 99-26+ before bouncing back to 100-00.
The belly of the yield curve continues to be the weakest sector on the spot curve. This is the most "rate sheet influential" part of the yield curve.
Several lenders repriced for the worse before the auction...the longer MBS prices sit near the lows of the day....the more reprices we will see.
I will be updating this post with more auction color and shifts in trade flows.