The Day Ahead: US$ Down, Equities Up Ahead of Jobless Claims

Equity and commodity prices are looking upwards this morning ahead of weekly labor data.

90 minutes before the opening bell, Dow futures are trading 39 points higher at 10,826 while S&P 500 futures are up 5.25 points to 1,169.00.

NYMEX crude oil futures are up 41 cents to $81.02 per barrel and Gold up $7.45 to $1,094.55.

Conversely, the US$ index is down 16 basis points to 81.67, following its largest daily gain in three and a half months yesterday, according to BMO Capital Markets.

Even so, ahead of the EU summit in Brussels, the euro continues weaken. It fell to $1.3284USD overnight, marking its lowest level versus the greenback since early May.

Key Events Today:

8:30 ― Initial Jobless Claims have so far averaged 460k claims in the first two weeks of March, down from 471k in February and 462k in January, but equivalent to the 460k average in December. Economists generally believe the survey indicates job growth when weekly claims are lower than 450k or 400k.

“Initial claims have been fluctuating around an average of 470K for the past nine weeks, which is indicative of the ongoing weakness in the labor market and supports our expectation of a slow recovery in employment,” said economists from BBVA.

Analysts from Nomura added: “Initial jobless claims have declined for three consecutive weeks and a temporary reversal this week therefore looks possible. We believe claims remain on a downtrend, however, and that labor market conditions in general are improving.”

9:10 ― Sandra Pianalto, president of the Cleveland Fed, speaks to the Bonita Springs Chamber of Commerce Market Pulse event at Florida Gulf Coast University, Bonita Springs, Florida.

Treasury Auctions:

• 1:00 ― 7-Year Notes

3:00 ― The Federal Reserve reports on their MBS purchases in the past week