5 Year Treasury Note Auction Results and Reaction. REPRICES IMMINENT
The Treasury has successfully auctioned $42 billion 5 year notes.
The bid to cover ratio, a measure of auction demand, was 2.55 bids submitted for every one accepted by the Treasury. This is above the ten auction average of 2.32 but below the five auction average of 2.70.
Bidding stopped out at a high yield of 2.605%. This was way above the 1pm "when issued" bid.
Primary Dealers, aka the street, took 49.6% of the issue. This is well above the ten auction average of 39.9% and the five auction average of 43.0%. Just like the 2 year note auction yesterday, dealers took home too much debt. While dealers don't mind a chunky award, there is such a thing as too much of a good thing. We do not want the street taking down higher percentages of the auction because they will need to get rid of excess supply...and they will not do it at cost.
Direct bidders, aka domestic fund managers like Vanguard and PIMCO, were awarded 10.8% of the issue. This is above both the ten auction average of 6.2% and the five auction average of 9.4% of total auction.
Just like the 2 yr note yesterday, indirect bidders were awarded a paltry percentage of the auction. They took home 39.7% of the issue. This is well below both the five and ten auction averages of 44.9% and 47.6% respectively. The next worst 5yr note indirect bidder turnout was July 29, 2009 when indirects were awarded 36.7%.
Plain and Simple: The bid to cover was light considering how much this issue cheapened prior to the auction. Blame a seller dominated marketplace for that though, traders saw an opportunity to push yields higher/prices lower...they clearly took it. The auction high yield confirms this theory. Dealers took down too much debt again, they will be forced to sell this inventory into a buyers market, which means they must adjust their offer price lower to attract demand. That pushes yields higher. Dealers will likely wait to distribute this supply until sellers are washed out. Direct bidder participation continues to trend higher...offsetting a lackluster turn out from indirect bidders who have been absent this week.
5-YEAR NOTES
YIELDS
High 2.605 pct
Median 2.539 pct
Low 2.450 pct
PRICE/ACCEPTANCES
Price 99.510730
Accepted at high 29.97 pct
Bid-to-cover ratio 2.55
AMOUNTS TENDERED AND ACCEPTED (dollars)
Total accepted 42,000,034,600
Total public bids tendered 107,224,523,600
Competitive bids accepted 41,854,341,000
Noncompetitive bids accepted 120,693,600
Fed add-ons 1,420,739,300
Primary Dealer Tendered 77,256,000,000
Primary Dealer Accepted 20,754,661,000
Primary Dealer Hit Rate 26.9% of their bid
Primary Dealer Award 49.6% of issuance
Direct Bidder Tendered 10,927,000,000
Direct Bidder Accepted 4,502,000,000
Direct Bidder Hit Rate 41.2% of their bid
Direct Bidder Award 10.8% of issuance
Indirect Bidder Tendered 18,895,830,000
Indirect Bidder Accepted 16,597,680,000
Indirect Bidder Hit Rate 87.8% of their bid
Indirect Bidder Award 39.7% of issuance
NOTE DETAILS
Issued date March 31, 2010
Maturity date March 31, 2015
CUSIP number 912828MW7
Here's how the market reacted:
If you haven't seen a reprice already, you will shortly.
As said this morning...might as well wait this out at this point. Pulling the trigger now is locking at the lows. Play the Range Until the Range Plays You! 3.85% is the outer limit of our range.