Bonds Retreat Into The Close. Any Risk Of Reprices?

By: Matthew Graham •
  • 4.5's now down 3 ticks on the day at 100-27
  • 10yr Note Yield up to 3.69 from intraday range around 3.66.
  • No confirmation from stocks as major indexes all still in the red
  • On of those minor sell-off's that might NOT lead to a reprice for the worse (yet)

Even though it's disconcerting that the current downtrend in prices is leading us back toward the worst levels of the day, there are a few considerations that make this situation not so black-and-white.  First of all, it's obviously Friday afternoon, and obviously after the technical bond market close at 3pm.  The market doesn't really close at 3pm of course, but some feel it might as well. 

3pm is when day over day levels are marked for comparison against each other.  Volume and liquidity tend to die down between 3 and 5 unless something on the radar is keeping participants vigilant in those late hours.  "Friday" comes into play in the sense that it's the weekend, and it's not uncommon to see some movement to the sidelines (read: cash) in diverse markets in order to account for developments over the weekend. 

Then we have quadruple witching today, which refers to periodic Fridays where up to 4 different types of options and futures expire.  Quadruple would be the one with all 4 expiring on the same day, potentially leading to some volatility and shuffling. 

Adding to the "sidelines" mentality is the fact that stocks are not rallying at all, and volume is low.

All that said, we have fallen 6 ticks, which is always justification for lenders to reprice, assuming that the rate sheet in question was either released or improved after 1020am eastern today.  Otherwise, it will have all the current "badness" baked in from the lower lows this morning.  And thus it is that MG hath distributed his grains of salt before presenting you with the chart.  Don't let it panic you.  If you're rollin' with the kind of lender that priced or repriced after 1020 and they're a lender who is historically likely to reprice at the drop of a hat, you know who you are, and either already have or may soon see a reprice for the worse.  But for most others, not a risk (yet... anything could happen if things decide to plummet, but we'd post back if they did).