MBS Finding Support at 101-00

By: Matthew Graham
  • 4.5's down 2 ticks on the day at 101-01
  • 10yr tsy down 8 ticks, bringing yield up to 3.67
  • S&P down a point, Dow up just over 30 points.
  • Current levels in bonds are at or slightly better than well tested support on the day
  • With no data, and quadruple witching, tomorrow is uncertain.

After moving weaker all day in trend channels, MBS and treasuries look to be finding some support at recent lows.  Whether that's merely a stop to today's bleeding or a broader consolidation that will reverse course tomorrow remains unknown.

What is known is that reprices for the worse have already happened and in some cases may still happen, but the market-based motivations for them are fading for the moment.  If you didn't lock last night and find yourself floating right now, tomorrow is too uncertain and this rebound comes too late in the day to assume it carries over.  Caution is the better part of profitability for now.