MBS CLOSE: Flat Day Reiterates Focus On FOMC

• In shocking twist of events, MBS end where they begin, with 4.5 at 100-29
• "Huge" change in treasuries too with 10yr at 3.695 vs. 3.701 coming into the day (a whole 6 thousands)
  
• Stocks rally to close right at their best levels from Friday, but no higher.
• Stock lever didn't hurt bonds.
• Tomorrow AM data of low to moderate importance:
  • Housing Starts at 830 expected at .565 mln vs .591 mln previously
    
  • Import/Export Prices at 830  (previously .8% MoM and 3.4% YoY on exports and 1.4% MoM and 11.5% YoY on imports)
    
• Important stuff later in day with FOMC announcement at 215pm

Did you know that MoM and YoY refer to "month over month" change and "year over year" change, respectively?  We use that from time to time, as do others.  And armed with that little bit of knowledge, you may find yourself reasonably able to infer such things as "day over day" from abbreviations like DoD.  Another popular one, should we accidentally leave it unexplained in the future, is O/N for "overnight."  Not sure what LoL means though... My kid just rolls his eyes when I ask.

Ahem!  Anyway... I don't have much for you tonight as there's not much to have!  If you saw MBS Lunch, then you're up to speed on trading levels and the sort of sideways price action that defined the rest of the afternoon.  Here's the chart:

And then because stocks are always a more universal conversation piece than bonds, one more chart for you so you can break any necessary conversational ice tomorrow with "you see stocks rallied up to Friday's highs last night?"  (in fact, highest close since sept. 08 for that matter, but close enough to Friday's close to be discussed as such).  Also, note the technical level discussed earlier today did come into play during the rally.  That would be the red circle on the right where the line gets "all squiggly" in much the same way it got "all squiggly" in the circle on the left on the way down.

Apart from pointing out that our most significant data of the day comes at 2:15pm tomorrow, the only thing left to share would be the words from a note that was taped to a throwing star I found in the back of my chair after leaning over to tie my shoe.  It can only mean the MBS Ninja strikes again...

MBS is in awe of the Fed-no not with their day to day operations but, the monthly FOMC meeting tomorrow that is but a mere one day session rather than the two-day elongated exercise about seemingly nothing of late. Tranquil and paralyzed markets don’t really conclude nor solve much as today’s price action and spreads results will attest to. Nothing really changed more than a fraction of 1/32nds (building point and foundation for all bond math), while coupons like 4.5%s and 4%s (the ones that do most to influence your rate sheets) were wholly unmoved on the session.

Get used to that for the next 18 to 20 hours or so, until the Federal Reserve meeting wraps up at 2:15pm on Tuesday and the “extended period” language is extended for, well, another period at least until next month’s meeting (April 27th and 28th –back to the usual two day-er). For the immediate time being, the market and its sensitive rates will be on hold, within a basis point of itself with no real direction until the Fed is done speaking (or releasing language about itself) and allows the market to find a direction-something better than the present "directionless" one.

Hmmm...  Maybe the ninja was trying to assassinate me because he knew I was about to call attention to the sideways day and place emphasis on tomorrow's FOMC... Well, at least you have it from a credible source now.  The market is where it's been so many evenings during the recovery: without sufficient certainty to move much and waiting for the guidance to make more decisive moves.  Since intraday reprice alerts are far easier to recognize and react to than day over day (or DoD?) strategy, the 2:15pm time might suggest getting a bit more aggressive with overnight floating on the belief that tomorrow morning is more likely to be flat and that you'd have time to react before any major changes tomorrow.