MBS LUNCH: Slow Day, But Favoring Bonds

• 4.5's up a tick at 100-29
• 10yr tsy up .004 in yield to 3.704
• General post-retail-sales theme, stocks down, bonds better, waiting on FOMC

After starting weaker, MBS are back into the green, but only slightly.  Still, looking over the past several days, we're right in the mix, which is right where you'd expect considering Friday failed to change any paradigms and that the market is waiting for the next big shoe to drop in the form of FOMC tomorrow.

Treasuries and stocks tell the story even better.  Of course we see the clear failure of respective tests on Friday (test= approach and touch a significant price/yield level), but even today, new technical levels are being created on the way back to the center of the range.  For treasuries, that looks like 3.73.

In stocks, after we see the clear test of 1150, today also has a bit of a pivot point as indicated in the white circles.  Any rally that mounts between here and close should at least pause to consider that level, but taken in conjunction with the 3.73 pivot behavior in treasuries, the broad interpretation of Friday's epic question of "to accelerate the recovery or not to accelerate the recovery" appears to at least been put on hold if not answered.