Radar Logic Survey Says U.S. Housing Sector Will Weaken in 2009, Recover in 2011

In contrast to expectations that the U.S. housing market could see a turnaround in the first half of 2009, the monthly housing price index report for June from Radar Logic suggests that recovery won't occur until 2011.

According to Radar Logic's Residential Property Index (RPX), 23 of the 25 metropolitan areas surveyed saw year-over-year price declines as of June 2008.

"Not surprisingly, June 2008 year-over-year RPX values continue to show weakness," said Michael Feder, CEO of Radar Logic. Feder said a close examination shows a mix of strength as well as absorption of distressed inventory, but added that "it is too soon to call this a bottom."

The RPX is a relatively new market that enables real estate to be traded as a liquid asset, via property derivatives marketed by major financial institutions. In the June report, trading in forwards on RPX was said to be gaining momentum.

"While it is still a new market, daily contract pricing is producing a forward curve," the report said. "That curve suggests weakness through 2009, stability in 2010 and a recovery in 2011. This is in contrast to some industry economists who are calling for a bottom in 2009."

By Patrick McGee and edited by Megan Ainscow