Thursday's Events: U.S. Prelim GDP, Jobless Claims
German employment data and M3 money supply top the euro zone's economic news as the UK market will receive the CBI's distributive trades report for August and house prices from Nationwide. In the U.S., the focus will be on preliminary Q2 GDP data and jobless claims figures, while Canadian markets receive second-quarter current account numbers.
At 2 a.m. EDT, markets will receive the ILO unemployment rate for Germany for July. Economists expect no change to the previous month's 7.3% level.
Also at 2 a.m. EDT, Nationwide will release its report on UK house prices for August. The consensus expects a 1.5% contraction in house prices compared to July's 1.7% decrease. Annual house prices are expected to have decreased 9.6% compared to July's 8.1% fall.
At 3:55 a.m. EDT, Germany will release its unemployment report for August. The consensus expects a 10k contraction in unemployment following a 20k decline in July. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 7.8%.
At 4 a.m. EDT, Italy will release its July producer price index. The consensus is expecting a 0.5% month-over-month gain in PPI following a 0.8% increase in June. Annual PPI is expected to pick up 8.4% following an 8.2% increase in June.
Also at 4 a.m., the European Central Bank will release M3 money supply for July. The consensus expects a 9.0% annual increase compared to June's 9.5% climb. The three-month moving average is expected to decline to a 9.5% growth rate from 9.9% previously.
At 6 a.m. EDT, the Confederation of British Industry will release its distributive trades report for August.
At 8:30 a.m. EDT, Statistics Canada will release the second-quarter current account, as measured by the balance of payments. The consensus expects an C$8.0 billion current account surplus following the previous quarter's C$5.6 billion level.
Also at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the preliminary second-quarter GDP report. Annualized GDP is expected to experience a 2.7% increase, compared to 1.9% in the advance report. Personal consumption is expected to have risen 1.6% compared to the 1.5% recorded previously. The GDP price index is expected to remain at 1.1% and Core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 2.1% quarter-over-quarter.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims for the week ending August 23. Economists expect initial jobless claims to come in at 425k compared to the previous week's 432k level. Continuing claims are expected to come in at 3390k compared to the 3362k recorded in the week prior.
At 10:35 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Energy Information's natural gas storage for the week ending Aug. 22 is expected to rise 84 Bcf after increasing 88 Bcf previously.
At 11 a.m. EDT, markets will receive the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing index for August. In July, the headline index stood at +21.
At noon EDT, European Central Bank Governing Council Member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi will speak on the Italian economy in Cortina, Italy.
At 1 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Treasury will sell $22 billion in five-year notes.
At 4:30 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release M1 and M2 money supply data for the week ending Aug. 27. In the previous week, M1 stood at $24.7B billion.
At 7:01 p.m. EDT the UK will receive the GfK's consumer confidence index for August. Economists expect a decline in the headline index to -41 from July's reading of -39.
2:00 DE ILO Unemployment Rate July Exp: 7.3% Prior: 7.3%
2:00 GB Nationwide House prices (M/M) (SA) August Exp: -1.5% Prior: -1.7%
2:00 GB Nationwide House prices (Y/Y) (NSA) August Exp: -9.6% Prior: -8.1%
3:55 DE Unemployment Change August Exp: -10K Prior: -20K
3:55 DE Unemployment Rate (SA) August Exp: 7.8% Prior: 7.8%
4:00 IT PPI (M/M) July Exp: +0.5% Prior: +0.8%
4:00 IT PPI (Y/Y) July Exp: +8.4% Prior: +8.2%
4:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 (Y/Y) (SA) July Exp: +9.0% Prior: +9.5%
4:00 EU Euro-Zone M3 3 Month Average (SA) July Exp: +9.5% Prior: +9.9%
6:00 GB U.K. CBI August Distributive Trades Report
8:30 CA Current Account Q2 Exp: +$8.0B Prior: +$5.6B
8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) (Annualized) Q2 Preliminary Exp: +2.7% Prior: +1.9%
8:30 US Personal Consumption Q2 Preliminary Exp: +1.6% Prior: +1.5%
8:30 US GDP Price Index Q2 Preliminary Exp: +1.1% Prior: +1.1%
8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q2 Preliminary Exp: +2.1% Prior: +2.1%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E August 23 Exp: +425K Prior: +432K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E August 16 Exp: 3390K Prior: 3362K
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E Aug 22 Exp: +84 Bcf Prior: +88 Bcf
11:00 US Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index August Prior: +21
12:00 IT ECB's Bini Smaghi Speaks at Conference in Cortina, Italy
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $22B in 5-Year Notes
16:30 US M1 and M2 Money Supply
19:01 GB GfK Consumer Confidence Survey August Exp: -41 Prior: -39
By Erik Kevin Franco and edited by Nancy Girgis