What's Priced in: Current Market Expectations for Future Monetary Policy

Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves:

FED - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 16.

Markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp hike and a 67% chance of a 50bp hike by June 24, 2009.

BOC - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 3.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 51% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of 25bp cut and a 74% chance of a 50bp cut by June 9, 2009.

BOJ - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 17.

Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp cut by Feb. 19, 2009.

RBA - OIS Implied Rates

Markets are pricing in a 73% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 7.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 65% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 16% chance of a 100bp cut by May 5, 2009.

BOE - SONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in a 5% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 4.

Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 98% chance of a 50bp cut by March 5, 2009.

ECB - EONIA Implied Rate

Markets are pricing in an 8% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 4.

Markets are pricing in a 17% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.

Markets are pricing in a 46% chance of a 25bp cut by March 5, 2009.

By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis