The Day Ahead: Bernanke Speaks, New Home Sales, $42 billion Treasury Auction
The market is roughly flat ahead of January housing data and testimony from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.
90 minutes before the opening bell, Dow futures are up 4 points to 10,303 and S&P 500 futures are flat at 1,097.25.
In commodities, WTI crude oil is trading 29 cents lower to $78.57 per barrel and Spot Gold is down $9.76 to $1,093.64.
Meantime, the US$ index is weaker, the euro is edging higher after industrial orders rose, and other major currencies are mixed.
Key Events Today:
10:00 ― New Home Sales have been difficult to track recently because of the homeowner tax credit, which was supposed to end in November but was then extended into April 2010. In December the index dropped 7.6%, pushing the annual pace of sales down to 342,000. With homebuyers back in the market to take advantage of the tax incentive, economists are looking for the annual pace to climb to 360k, though not all are confident ― expectations range from 345k to 380k.
“January's new home sales figures will shed light on market conditions,” said economists from IHS Global Insight, who look for sales to climb 8.2%. “New home sales were down 9.3% and 7.6% in November and December, respectively. A third straight drop in sales could spell trouble for the housing market in 2010, but we expect some rebound from December's very weak level.”
Economists at Nomura point out that the homebuilder sentiment report from the National Association of Realtors edged up several points recently, suggesting improvement.
“New home sales also declined sharply in both November and December and look set for a payback,” they added. “Further ahead, we expect growth in new home sales to remain slow as a result of competition from excess supply in the existing home market.”
10:00 ― Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaks before the House Committee on Financial Services at the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress.
“Bernanke will likely upgrade the assessment of the economy, while highlighting the continued weakness in labor market conditions,” predict economists at RDQ. “Bernanke will likely incorporate some of the February 10th exit strategies testimony into this appearance . . . and we would also not be surprised if there was another appeal ― similar to that made by a number of Fed officials in recent weeks ― to ensure that the Fed’s supervisory role is not diminished as Congress considers regulatory reform.”
Economists from BMO expect Bernanke to be ready for a grilling. "Credit conditions have improved enough to warrant the removal of emergency lending support, but the economic recovery is still too fragile to warrant monetary tightening—look for Bernanke to hammer this point home, especially given the sensitive market reaction last week when the discount rate was increased," they wrote.
Treasury Auctions:
- 1:00 ― $42 billion 5-Year Notes