MBS CLOSE: Positive Trends Continue As Prices Reach Highs

Very little to report since MBS Afternoon...  If you saw the discussion there regarding the potential formation of a corrective pattern with a 100-17 apex, then the last few hours are merely a continuation of that (which in and of itself was a continuation from the potential patterns we discussed in last night's close). 

Despite that rally, MBS have a noticeable internal price level right about where we closed, at which point we'd be challenging implied resistance from yesterday morning's lows.  Treasuries would love to crack 3.71, but there's no reason to expect that's a more distinct probability than yields stagnating or moving higher.  Sorry to be the bearer of bad news on that one, but the ground holding today is not a significant hint at what is to come tomorrow.

That will be more up to data, tradeflows, and stocks, which are hanging out around some key technicals and will be approaching others if they rally tomorrow. As far as data, here's what we're looking at with the rescheduled Retails Sales.

830 - retail sales

955 - consumer sentiment

1000 - business inventories

200pm - Treasury Budget

That's a reasonably robust Friday's worth of data, and on an auction week that saw thurday's auction garner limited response amidst myriad other considerations, I don't expect any large variance to go unnoticed, if not un-traded.   But as always, variances in headline prints won't always count if internal components of the data don't corroborate.  Pretty even chances of multiple eventualities tomorrow...  Today could have been a turning point, a plateau that will trade sideways tomorrow, or merely a slight deceleration in a broader trend of higher rates vs. a small stock recovery.  Overall, probably more defensive than offensive if we had to pick, but only just, and ready to bow down to any convincing fundamentals tomorrow, should they show up unchallenged.