The Day Ahead: Last Day of the Decade

It’s the final day of the decade and the S&P 500 and Dow each are likely to close the year with their biggest annual percentage gains in five years, two of the many signs that the worst of the financial crisis is over. 

Year to date the S&P 500 is up 24.7% while the Dow is 20.2%.

The economy may not be in shambles anymore but it’s still far from good, and for anyone who needs a reminder the one data entry today, jobless claims, should helpfully provide a dose of reality.

Two hours before the trading session begins, The Dow looks to open 13 points higher at 10,503 while the benchmark S&P 500 looks to open 2.75 points higher at 1,124.75.

Commodities are also on the rise with WTI Crude oil trading 36 cents higher at $79.64 per barrel and Spot Gold up $12.48 to $1,105.38.

Note: Markets close early today at 2pm and remain closed tomorrow. Happy New Year.

Key Releases Today:

8:30 ― Jobless Claims fell sharply in the week ending Dec. 19 to 452k, a 15-month low. Week-to-week data has been volatile but the four-week average has been steadily moving lower for several months. As the year comes to an end the weekly report still isn’t indicative of job growth, but it’s close. Economists say fewer than 400k weekly claims is historically indicative of job growth, and for this report the consensus is to see 463k claims.

“While claims have been declining steadily since the beginning of 2H09, they remain well above the levels of December 2007, which is when the recession officially began,” note economists from BBVA, who said some decline would be consistent with “a gradual recovery in labor markets.”