MBS LUNCH: Lower And Lower And Lower

It's starting to get reminiscent of  early June around here.  Since then, we've had only one sell-off that was steeper, and we're pretty close to that one as it is.  Both MBS and Tsy's flirting with more epic, "round number" sorts of levels with the 4.5 meeting support at PAR and the 10yr tsy putting in two rather convincing bounces at 3.75+.

When things move so quickly, the past reference points quickly disappear.  You can see in the chart below that the past few days shoot right past most recent suggestions of support.  Yesterday's long term line now becomes the white dotted line, as we'd have to go back even farther to still consider current yields within a downtrend.

But as we mentioned, it's certainly not DATA that are driving these markets.  Stocks continue to prod the highs, and although it very well may be the case that tsy's read something into that considering the long term range bind coupled with the annual highs, it's not the sort of movement in stocks that normally accompanies the sell-off in bonds.  In other words, GDP didn't say much about the market, and Stocks agree.

That said, on an hour to hour basis, the stock lever is more connected as the month progresses. 

Reprices for the worse are a given.  If you haven't seen them already, you soon may, but that's not to say things have gotten worse since the alert.  We simply remain at or near the lows.