MBS ALERT: VOLATILITY AND SOME WEAKNESS AFTER FOMC

The FOMC's most meaningful tweak has been an upgrade to the labor market - "economic activity has continued to pick up and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating."

Take a look at the chart below if you like, but the suggestion is that EVEN THOUGH THE ABSOLUTE LIMITS OF THE RANGE HAVE NOT YET BEEN BROKEN, THERE IS ENOUGH VOLATILITY AND WEAKNESS IN THE BOND MARKET FOLLOWING THE FOMC STATEMENT TO JUSTIFY REPRICES FOR THE WORSE.  NOT A CONCLUSIVE BREAKDOWN OF THE 3.62 RANGE, BUT WE'RE TESTING TESTING TESTING.

Bottom line, you will see reprices for the worse very shortly, but we cannot yet assume the range is moving over 3.62 in tsy's.  MBS are down 2 ticks on the day at 100-25 and the 10 yr is up 1.2 bps at 3.601.

Here is a look at post FOMC trade flows in the futures market. Notice how the size of trades picked up immediately, mostly to the downside or RED.