MBS OPEN: First Round of Data Pushes Rates Higher

Two data sets have already hit news wires....

The first was the Producer Price Index...this data reports on inflation at the producer level. Here is what flashed across my news reader:

NOV PPI +1.8 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.8 PCT) VS OCT +0.3 PCT
NOV PPI EX-FOOD/ENERGY +0.5 PCT (CONS +0.2 PCT) VS OCT -0.6 PCT.
NOV PPI EXFOOD/ENERGY RISE LARGEST SINCE OCT 2008 (+0.5 PCT)
NOV YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI +2.4 PCT (CONS +1.6), CORE +1.2 PCT (CONS +0.9).
YEAR-OVER-YEAR PPI FIRST RISE SINCE NOV 2008, LARGEST SINCE OCT 2008 (+5.2 PCT)
NOV PPI INTERMEDIATE GOODS +1.4 PCT, EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.3 PCT
NOV PPI CRUDE GOODS +5.7 PCT, EXFOOD/ENERGY -0.8 PCT

PPI was higher than expected on both the Overall and Core metrics. Below is a table summarizing the data and forecasts...

The second release was the NY Fed Manufacturing Index. It was MUCH WORSE than expected....

NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE INDEX +2.55 IN DECEMBER (CONSENSUS +24.00) VS +23.51 IN NOVEMBER
NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT -5.26 IN DECEMBER VS +1.32  IN NOVEMBER
NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX +2.20 IN DECEMBER VS +16.66 IN NOVEMBER
NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX +19.74 IN DECEMBER VS +10.53 IN NOVEMBER
NY FED'S EMPIRE STATE SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX +43.01 IN DECEMBER VS +57.00 IN NOVEMBER

DECEMBER DROP IN EMPIRE STATE INDEX BIGGEST IN HISTORY OF GAUGE DATING BACK TO JULY 2001
EMPIRE STATE INDEX AND 6-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE JULY 2009

The bond market is weaker after the first round of data...specifically the long end, aka the "rate sheet influential" end of the yield curve. 

10s are -0-13 at 98-04 yielding 3.603%...our next "pivot point" is 3.62%.

The FN 4.0 is -0-11 at 97-30 and the FN 4.5 is -0-09 at 100-25....

Industrial Production data is released at 915am. It will move markets.