The Day Ahead: Markets Optimistic Ahead of Employment Numbers
Equity futures are often flat or in decline before the monthly of release of the unemployment rate and the pace of job losses, but ahead of the November results equities are pointing modestly higher.
The reason is simple: expectations are that 100k or fewer people lost their job in the month, compared with 190k in October and as many as 741k at the start of the year.
Less than an hour before the data, the Dow looks to open 12 points higher at 10,364 while futures on the S&P 500 are up 1.50 points to 1,100.
In contrast to equities, WTI Crude oil is down 69 cents to $75.77 per barrel and Spot Gold is trading $1.53 lower at $1,206.07.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is weaker against an array of currencies. In recent commentary, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fisher ― aka Ben Bernanke’s thesis advisor at MIT so many years ago ― said the greenback’s decline reflects a necessary adjustment in the balance of payments across nations.
Key Events Today:
8:30 ― No economists are expecting the Employment Situation survey to report growth in November, but plenty are forecasting a decline of fewer of 100,000, which implies growth could be just one to two months off. The range of predictions is from -50k to -175k and the median is -100k.
HFE’s Ian Shepherdson points out at the BLS data is only accurate within 100k anyway, so there isn’t much statistical difference most of the forecasts. He also points out data the more optimistic forecasts are based on seasonal adjustment theories that the market is getting excited about, “even if such excitement is not necessarily rational.”
Aside from the wonkish theories, the general optimism stems from the weekly jobless claims numbers, which averaged 481,000 in November ― the lowest average since Lehman Brothers went bust ― versus 524,000 in October.
The other question is whether the jobless rate will continue to rise or not. Most analysts are cautious, estimating it will remain at 10.2%.
“Retail employment will probably do badly, since holiday hiring is likely to be more subdued than the seasonal adjustment process anticipates,” wrote economists from IHS Global Insight, who expect 175k losses in the month. “We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 10.2% after its big jump last month, but it has not yet peaked.”
Analysts from Nomura are more hopeful. “We expect that the unemployment rate fell to 10.1% after rising by 0.4 percentage points last month. Our forecast of a decline in the unemployment rate rests on the assumption that the recent weakness in household employment will prove temporary.”
10:00 ― Charles Plosser, president of the Philly Fed, speaks for the second time this week, this time delivering opening remarks at a conference on Policy Lessons from the Economic and Financial Crisis in Philadelphia.
1:15 ― James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, speaks at the same conference.