Market Recap: Stocks Start Fourth Quarter Strong

After slipping for two weeks, equities opened the fourth quarter with the best week over week rally since July.

The Dow closed above the 12-month high at 9,864 as it  jumped 4% since last Friday. Shares in the S&P easily wiped away late September losses, closing at 1,071, 4.5% on the week, and similar moves pushed the NASDAQ to 2,139, up 4.50% for the week.

The advances occurred despite that the week was relatively light on fresh data. Some economists believe hard data to be released next week, namely retail sales and industrial production, may be a reality check to investors.

“Those expecting a V-shaped recovery in the developed word have neither history nor economic logic on their side,” said analysts from Nomura Global Economics in a weekly note Friday. 

“There is now a significant body of evidence to suggest that economies do not generally ‘snap back’ from recessions associated with severe financial crises, but rather struggle with the aftermath for a long time,” they added. 

Gross domestic product is expected to have climbed more than 3.5% in the third quarter, but a large factor allowing businesses to earn profits has been firing workers ― hardly a boon to the economy. The unemployment rate is 9.8% and virtually all forecasters believe that rate will be in double-digits by the New Year.

“In terms of cumulative job cuts, the current recession is by far the most severe, as job cuts have totaled over 7.2 million or roughly -5.2%,” said Deutsche Bank’s research team on Friday. 

Looking to next week, analysts from IHS Global Insight predict that retail sales will fall back sharply in “a post ‘cash-for-clunkers’ hangover,” while consumer sentiment should “retrace some of the strong gains reported in September.” 

Data Recap:

The only major data released today was the trade balance, which unexpectedly narrowed as exports climbed to a new 2009 high. The deficit fell 3.6% in August to $30.7 billion, as exports improved 0.2% and imports fell 0.6%. 

“The dramatic improvement in the U.S. trade balance is somewhat encouraging news, as it suggests that the weak U.S. dollar is having the desired effect of bolstering exports,” said Millan Mulraine from TD Securities. “As such, we expect the net trade will provide strong support to U.S. economic activity in the coming months.”