The Day Ahead: Obama Wins Nobel, Trade Balance Before Bell

President Barack Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize this morning. The 44th president is the third sitting president to receive the honor but the first to win within his first year as commander-in-chief. The Nobel Committee said he was chosen “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.” 

On to markets, equities are roughly flat this morning after the S&P 500 gained 0.75% in Thursday’s session. The only piece of data to hit markets this morning is the trade balance at 8:30, but three officials from the Federal Reserve give talks throughout the day as well.

They follow Chairman Ben Bernanke from last night, who didn’t say anything new, but he emphasized that the Fed will hike interest rates down the road. 

“My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an extended period,” he said. “At some point, however, as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.”

Bernanke did not give a time frame, nor did he speak on the economic outlook.

Aside from equities, WTI Crude oil is down $0.27 to $71.42 per barrel, and Spot Gold is trading $6.20 lower at $1048.90.

Key Events Today:

8:30 ― The week’s last data point may be the most important. The Trade Balance showed the deficit deepening to $32.0 billion in July, and analysts expect it to sink to $33.0 billion in August. Exports have been rising strongly for the past three months but should only remain steady this month, while imports could keep rising as crude prices rose 1.7%.

“Overall, both exports and imports should continue to grow, which would be good news for the recovery in world trade,” said economists at IHS Global Insight. “As the U.S. inventory cycle turns upwards, and firms need to replenish stocks, we expect the resulting import bounce to outpace the rise in exports. That means a wider trade deficit — but in a context of stronger growth.”

8:30 ― Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart gives remarks at a conference on “Short Selling: Costs and Benefits.”

12:15 ― Federal Reserve’s Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks on “Monetary Policy Research and the Financial Crisis: Strengths and Shortcomings.”

2:00 ― St. Louis President Jim Bullard (non-voter) speaks on the economy and monetary policy.