MBS ALERT: Why Reprices Are Possible (updated...)

(updated 1:33pm):

Chopitility Much?  Things starting to look more like the auction results suggested providing a stark example of why we hate to even bring you reprice alerts like the one below.  Things look safer at this point?  Well at least for this particular five minute time-frame.  Back to smooth sailing, and as promised, we'll let you know (AGAIN) if the we get back to the lows of the day.

(original post at 1:16pm):

Chopitility is a way of life after auctions.  And though the charts below tell a much different story than the wider view 2-day charts, it's something that has to be taken into consideration.  What's that?  Even though we've only fallen 4 ticks since the auction anda mere 7 ticks from the highs, we are at the lows of the day.  Additionally, MBS are relying on tightening spreads to keep these gains which tends to make lenders feel uneasy. 

So although chances are fair that you will see price move several times in both positive and negative directions before the day is done, and although those price changes might be relatively insignificant in the big picture, reprice risk is here any time prices touch or break their lows.  Just a way of life and something that may warrant some locking depending on your personal hedge ratio / GUT-FLOP / etc...

We'll save additional analysis in order to get this alert out to you quicker.  We'll be back if the things get worse or better...