Thursday's Events: U.S. Q1 Prelim GDP, Jobless Claims, Top FOMC-Speak
Preliminary U.S. GDP, jobless claims and comments from the Fed's Ben Bernanke, Donald Kohn and Timothy Geithner will highlight the North American economic releases along with weekly oil inventories from the Department of Energy and the first-quarter current account balance from Canada.
At 8:30 a.m. EDT, Statistics Canada will release the first-quarter current account balance, which economists expect to move into surplus at C$2.8 billion compared to the previous quarter's C$0.5 billion deficit.
Furthermore, Statistics Canada will release also release March payroll employment, earnings and hours at 8:30 a.m. In February, average weekly payroll earnings rose 0.6%.
Also at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release preliminary first-quarter GDP figures. The consensus is for an upward revision to first-quarter economic growth to 0.9% from the advance 0.6% annualized estimate. Personal consumption is expected to be unrevised from the previously estimated 1.0% growth rate. The GDP price index is expected to be unrevised, growing 2.6%, and the core PCE to be unrevised from the quarterly 2.2% increase.
Also at 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release initial and continuing jobless claims for the weeks ending May 24 and May 17 respectively. Economists are looking for 370k claims in the week following 365k claims in the previous week. Continuing jobless claims are expected to rise to 3080k from the previous week's 3073k level.
At 9 a.m. EDT, New York Fed Governor Timothy Geithner (voter) will speak at the conference on the 'Role of Money Markets' in New York. No audience or media Q&A is expected.
At 10 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Conference Board will release its help wanted index for April, which economists expect to be unchanged at a reading of 19.
At 10:15 a.m. EDT, the Bank of Canada will release results from its C$1.0 billion 28-day term PRA.
At 10:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release natural gas inventories for the week ending May 23. Economists are expecting an 85 Bcf rise in natural gas storage, matching the previous 85 Bcf build.
Also at 10:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Department of Energy will release oil inventories for the week ending May 23. Economists are expecting no increase in crude oil reserves following the previous 5317k decline. Gasoline inventories are also expected to come in flat following the previous 755k decrease. Distillate inventories are expected to rise 1000k after increasing 728k in the previous week. Refinery utilization is expected to rise 0.5% after picking up 1.3% in the previous week.
At 11:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Treasury will sell $19 billion in a 17-day cash management auction.
At 1 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Treasury will sell $19 billion in a five-year Treasury notes.
At 2:30 p.m. EDT, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak via teleconference on 'Risk Transfer Mechanisms and Financial Stability' in Basel, Switzerland. His remarks will be identical to those made on May 13 and there will be no Q&A.
At 4:30 p.m. EDT, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release M1 and M2 money supply for the week ending May 19.
Also at 4:30 p.m., Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will hold a media availability in Montreal.
At 7 p.m. EDT, Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn will speak on 'Money Markets and Financial Stability' at the New York Fed's conference on money markets. An audience Q&A will follow.
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 24-May Exp: +370K Prior: +365K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E 17-May Exp: 3080K Prior: 3073K
8:30 CA Current Account (BOP) 1Q Exp: +$2.9B Prior: -$0.5B
8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) 1Q Preliminary Exp: +0.9% Prior: +0.6%
8:30 US Personal Consumption 1Q Preliminary Exp: +1.0%Prior: +1.0%
8:30 US GDP Price Index 1Q Preliminary Exp: +2.6% Prior: +2.6%
8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) 1Q Preliminary Exp: +2.2% Prior: +2.2%
8:30 CA Payroll Employment and Hourly Earnings Report
9:00 US Fed's Geithner Gives Opening Remarks on Money Markets in N.Y.
10:00 US Help Wanted Index April Exp.: 19 Prior: 19
10:15 BOC Term PRA Auction
10:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E 23-May Exp: 0K Prior: -5317K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E 23-May Exp: 0K Prior: -755K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E 23-May Exp: 1000K Prior: +728K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E 23-May Exp: +0.5% Prior: +1.3%
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E 23-May Exp: 85 Bcf Prior: 85 Bcf
11: 00 US North American Surface Freight Report
11:30 US Treasury to Sell $19B 17-Day Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $19B 5-Year Notes
14:30 US Bernanke to Speak on Fed's Liquidity Provision in Basel
19:00 US Fed's Kohn Speaks About Money Markets at New York Fed
By Erik Kevin Franco and edited by Nancy Girgis