MBS OPEN: Stock Lever Good...

By: Matthew Graham

The AM So Far...

  • Almost half a point up on overnight equities sell-off
  • What's bad for stocks is good for bonds (more recently)
  • Looking for 2s/10s curve to flatten (trading TUT).  10's resistance at 3.36 and 3.26 if things get heady. 2s under 1.00% not so attractive to us.
  • For now, MBS wider into the flight to quality rally
  • If trend continues servicers likely to add duration, helping spreads and "down in coupon"
  • Laggard 4.5's tell the story of negative convexity as prices cross over 100-00

Recap of Previous Session

  • Bond markets drift higher (yield) in low volume
  • No indications of flow imbalance or major shifts
  • just another return to the status quo (right back to where the volume was)
  • "wait and see" what stocks tell us

In The Time It Takes To Type... (NEW!)

  • sideways...  Still at 100-09
  • Tsy's continue to tick lower here and there, breaking through 3.46 resistance, knocking on 3.40, targeting 3.26
  • TY futures (10 yr futures) trading in decent volume so far...270K

The Day Ahead

Mortgage Rates at 6 week Low

MBS, Tsy, and LIBOR Quotes

 

Secondary Market Current Coupon: 4.48