MBS OPEN: Stock Lever Good...
By:
Matthew Graham
•
The AM So Far...
- Almost half a point up on overnight equities sell-off
- What's bad for stocks is good for bonds (more recently)
- Looking for 2s/10s curve to flatten (trading TUT). 10's resistance at 3.36 and 3.26 if things get heady. 2s under 1.00% not so attractive to us.
- For now, MBS wider into the flight to quality rally
- If trend continues servicers likely to add duration, helping spreads and "down in coupon"
- Laggard 4.5's tell the story of negative convexity as prices cross over 100-00
Recap of Previous Session
- Bond markets drift higher (yield) in low volume
- No indications of flow imbalance or major shifts
- just another return to the status quo (right back to where the volume was)
- "wait and see" what stocks tell us
In The Time It Takes To Type... (NEW!)
- sideways... Still at 100-09
- Tsy's continue to tick lower here and there, breaking through 3.46 resistance, knocking on 3.40, targeting 3.26
- TY futures (10 yr futures) trading in decent volume so far...270K
Secondary Market Current Coupon: 4.48