MBS OPEN: Treasuries and MBS Gain On CPI

By: Matthew Graham

The AM So Far...

  • CPI Results
    • UNCHANGED ( SAME AS CONSENSUS), EXFOOD/ENERGY +0.1 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.1 PCT)
    • YEAR-OVER-YEAR -2.1 PCT (CONSENSUS -2.0 PCT), EXCLUDING FOOD/ENERGY +1.5 PCT (CONS +1.6 PCT)
    • ENERGY -0.4 PCT, GASOLINE -0.8 PCT, NEW VEHICLES +0.5 PCT
    • YEAR-OVER-YEAR DROP LARGEST SINCE JAN 1950 (-2.1 PCT)
    • CORE CPI YEAR-OVER-YEAR RISE SMALLEST SINCE FEB 2004 (+1.2 PCT)
  • 4.5's up 7 ticks  to 99-30, 10yr Tsy up 13 ticks to 100-19 --3.556 yield
  • MBS and Tsy's were slightly improved even before the data and the effect is not significant at this point
  • Still, the fact that Bonds advanced at all following an inflation reading (something Ben just told us again would be a non-issue) suggests a fledgling return to "actually caring about market fundamentals"
  • Could we imagine a world without "Day Trader's Paradise?" 
  • Well, we COULD, but c'mon...  No more songs?

Recap of Previous Session

  • Nice rally yesterday on data and 30 yr auction, even as stocks mustered gains by the end of the day.
  • what else?

In The Time It Takes To Type... (NEW!)

Returning to pre-data levels, perhaps slightly higher in tsy futures...  MBS and 10yr holding initial moderate gains, but nothing major (yet...)

MBS, Tsy, and LIBOR Quotes...